Future Perspectives

Economic Outlook

Global economy to see below-average growth again

Based on International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, we expect global economic growth to pick up slightly yet remain at a below-average, low single-digit percentage in 2026¹. Uncertainties around international trade policy are set to weigh on growth. By contrast, tailwinds are expected to come from rising investments in technology (including artificial intelligence), especially in the United States and Asia.

We expect the global seed and crop protection market to remain flat or experience modest expansion in 2026, falling within a currency-adjusted range of 0% to 3%² (2025: +2%). Following a record 2025, the corn seed market is set to return to a normalized level, especially in the United States. In Latin America, we expect the soybean and corn seed market to again see moderate growth. On a global level, the soybean and cotton seed segments are projected to recover. Meanwhile, the crop protection market is again expected to lag behind the growth of the seed market, with growth segments in Asia, such as corn, rice, fruit and vegetables, partially offsetting the flat or negative developments anticipated in Europe/Middle East/Africa and North America. The main headwinds are expected to include ongoing pressure on prices arising from intense competition and generics, along with regulatory risks and bans on key active substances in Europe/Middle East/Africa. The volatile geopolitical situation remains a source of uncertainty when evaluating markets and will require continuous analysis.

We expect the pharmaceuticals market to experience currency-adjusted growth of approximately 8%^{3, 4} in 2026 (2025: +9%). Market expansion will largely be fueled by new and existing products, especially in the United States and to a lesser extent the European Union. By contrast, the loss of exclusivity for established brands and lower costs for generics and biosimilars are expected to offset some of that growth.

In an uncertain geopolitical environment, we expect the consumer health market to grow by a currency-adjusted 3 to 4%⁵ in 2026 (2025: +3%), again led by Europe/Middle East/Africa and Latin America. For the United States and China, we expect the market environment to remain challenging. All categories are expected to grow, led by nutritionals, dermatology and digestive health.

Corporate Outlook

The following forecast is based on the current business development and our internal planning. To enhance the comparability of operational performance, we are also presenting this guidance on a currency-adjusted basis, applying the average monthly exchange rates from 2025.

Overall, it should be noted that a 1% appreciation (depreciation) of the euro against all other currencies would decrease (increase) sales by some €350 million and reduce (increase) net financial debt by around €110 million on an annual basis.

Our free cash flow guidance primarily reflects planned payouts in connection with litigations, which are expected to amount to approximately €5 billion in 2026.

Please also note that, from fiscal 2026, we will be updating the way we calculate core earnings per share (core EPS) from continuing operations⁶ in order to provide enhanced transparency around our current operational performance. In addition to the depreciation of property, plant and equipment that is already accounted for as part of the existing approach, the updated method for calculating this metric will also factor in the amortization of certain intangible assets, in particular software. Had the new method been applied for 2025, core EPS from continuing operations would have amounted to €4.57 (compared with €4.91 based on the existing approach). To enhance comparability, our 2026 guidance applies the updated method for determining the 2025 figure for this KPI.

Potential estimation risks regarding special charges in connection with litigations are referenced in A 3.2 Opportunity and Risk Report.

1 Source: International Monetary Fund (as of January 2026)
2 Source: Bayer’s estimate (as of January 2026), plus various local sources
3 Source: IQVIA Market Prognosis (as of September 2025); all rights reserved
4 Source: IQVIA The Global Use of Medicines Outlook through 2029 (as of June 2025); all rights reserved
5 Source: Bayer’s estimate (as of November 2025), taking into account external sources
6 For previous definition, see A 2.3 “Alternative Performance Measures Used by the Bayer Group.”