Future Perspectives

Economic Outlook

Geopolitical conflicts weigh on global economic growth

Based on International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, we expect the global economy to exhibit slower growth in 2026, expanding by a low-single-digit percentage. This development primarily reflects headwinds arising from the conflict in the Middle East, with energy importers being hit particularly hard. However, these effects are partially being offset by AI-driven growth momentum in a number of countries.

We continue to expect the global seed and crop protection market to remain flat or experience modest expansion in 2026, falling within a range of 0 to 3%¹. However, the market environment continues to be shaped by high volatility, geopolitical uncertainties, rising input costs and financial strains in the agriculture industry. In crop protection, we continue to anticipate pressure on prices due to intense competition from suppliers of generic products. However, we see tailwinds from robust demand and the indispensable role that these solutions play in facilitating modern, productive farming. We expect the seeds and traits segment to experience moderate growth, driven by the expansion of corn acreages in Latin America, consistently high corn planting intentions in the United States, and rising demand for soybean, cotton, vegetable and cereal seeds. However, uncertainties remain with respect to geopolitical developments and possible weather-related effects, for example in connection with El Niño.

We now expect the pharmaceuticals market to expand by approximately 7%² in 2026 (previously: 8%), driven by both new and existing products in developed countries and continued demand for innovative therapies in areas such as oncology and obesity. The lower estimate primarily reflects intensified US pricing pressures as well as geopolitical and supply-chain risks that have increased energy and transport costs for active pharmaceutical ingredients³. In addition, this outlook incorporates the impact of loss of exclusivity for established brands and the ongoing shift toward lower-priced generics and biosimilars, which remain structural drags on market growth.

In an increasingly uncertain geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, we now expect the consumer health market to grow by 2.5 to 3.5%⁴ in 2026 (previously: 3 to 4%). This downward revision primarily reflects the continuously softening environment in the United States and other key markets due to weak consumer sentiment. The development of the seasonal categories as well as further development of consumer sentiment in the US and Chinese markets remain key swing factors for the remainder of the year.

Corporate outlook

We continue to evaluate the impacts of current geopolitical developments on an ongoing basis, especially in relation to the war in the Middle East. Based on current calculations, the financial effects do not have any material impact on our full-year guidance. However, we are continuing to monitor developments in terms of primary and secondary effects (e.g., energy and raw material prices, logistics costs and demand-related effects) to ensure we are in a position to implement appropriate countermeasures if necessary. Predicting future impacts from any additional developments that may arise in this connection remains subject to uncertainty.

In view of US company Apollo Global Management, Inc., obtaining a minority stake in a newly established Bayer entity in exchange for a €3.0 billion capital contribution, we now expect net financial debt for 2026 to come in at €29.0 billion to €30.0 billion, and thus lower than originally forecast.

For all other KPIs, we are confirming our currency-adjusted Group guidance for full-year 2026 as published in the Quarterly Statement for the first quarter of 2026.

Applying the closing rates as of June 30, 2026, instead of March 31, 2026, gives rise to a change in currency effects for some of our financial KPIs, as shown below:

1 Source: Bayer’s estimate (as of July 2026), plus various local sources; currency-adjusted

2 Source: IQVIA Forecast Link, global pharmaceuticals market report, May 2026 release; currency adjusted

3 Source: J.P. Morgan Research, European Healthcare Credit 2026 Mid-Year Sector Weigh-In, June 30 / July 1, 2026; currency-adjusted

4 Source: Bayer’s estimate (as of July 2026), taking into account external sources; currency-adjusted